T E X A R R A K I S

this is kind of interesting. it's a solid 55 degrees and raining up in boston; but down and over in west texas, it's going to snow tonight!: Tonight: Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 29. Northeast wind between 10 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Tuesday: A 50 percent chance of snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 32. North wind around 10 mph. Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow showers before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. West wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.    GOOD 12Z MODEL INITIATION WRT POSITION OF 5H LOW JUST S OF AZ BORDER. DOWNSTREAM OF SAID LOW MID/UPPER FLOW IS DIFFLUENT WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LR/S TO NEAR EL PASO WHERE OCCASIONAL ISOLD STRIKES WERE NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND MORE RECENTLY IN THE DAVIS MTNS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUPPORTIVE OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUD ELEMENTS NOTED. AS SUCH THERE WILL BE ENUF LIFT TO KEEP SCT PRECIP AROUND THRU REMAINDER OF PM. CONSIDERING THCK CHARTS 1000-500MB AND 500MB-850MB WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO MTNS AND HIER ADJACENT PLAINS, I.E., PARTS OF EDDY/CULBERSON COUNTIES AND WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN IN EFFECT SINCE 18Z FOR MOST OF THOSE AREAS. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF 2" OF SNOW IN QUEEN LAST NIGHT/FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH LIGHT ICE IN THE DAVIS AROUND 5500 FT CURRENTLY AND HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED AT TIMES ON GDP MTR. WRT TO DETERMINISTIC MODELS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ONE THAT DOES FAVOR SNOW...SOME HEAVY WITH CLOSED 5H LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE ACRS SRN 1/3 OF CWFA. THIS WILL TEND FAVOR SNOW N AND W OF A LINE FROM CANDELARIA TO NEAR LAMESA BTWN 00Z-12Z AND INVOF A LINE FROM NEAR FT. STOCKTON TO MIDLAND/ODESSA TO GAIL BTWN 09Z- 21Z TUE. CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE AVERAGE GREATEST SNOW AMOUNT IN THIS PATTERN IS ABOUT 7" BUT AS HIGH AS 9". THIS MORNINGS FCST BASICALLY HAD 5-10" ACRS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THE 12-18HR PERIOD FROM TODAY THRU TUE MORNING AND ABOUT 2 INCHES FOR THE PB FROM 12Z/TUE- 00Z/WED. ALL MODELS SUPPORT 2.5-4" ACRS THE SE NM/WRN AND NWRN PB WITH NAM12 SHOWING EVEN HIER AMOUNTS ACRS NW PB. FINALLY MAKING AN ATTEMPT TO QUANTIFY THIS USING PROBABILISTIC SREF DATA THERE IS A 50-90% PROBABILITY THAT SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1-4 INCHES WILL OCCUR N AND W OF A LINE FROM CANDELARIA TO NEAR LAMESA BTWN 00Z-18Z TUE AND 30-50% PROBABILITY THAT 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG/W OF A LINE FROM NEAR GAIL...TO MIDLAND/ODESSA...TO KERMIT BTWN 12Z TUE-00Z WED. HAVING SAID ALL THAT AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE AGREEMENT BTWN THE SYNOPTIC CLIMO PATTERN FOR HEAVY SNOW AND THE DETERMINISTIC/PROBABILISTIC FCST WILL OPT TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE SNOW FOR THE MTNS USING 5-6" AND LOCAL 8" AND INCREASE AMOUNTS FOR THE SE NM PLAINS/PARTS OF PB...2-4" LOCAL 5" NOTING HIEST AMOUNTS MOSTLY LIKELY IN SE NM AND NW PB. AS SUCH WILL GO WITH WINTER STORM WARNING TO INCLUDE REEVES/LOVING/LEA/GAINES/ANDREWS AND GO WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACRS MUCH OF THE PB EXCEPT FAR SE-E. ATTP 62/180 FROM SEMINOLE TO AROUND CARLSBAD AND I-10 FROM PECOS WWD SEEM TO THE MOSTLY LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR MOST SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS. OF COURSE SFC TEMPS WILL MAKE TIMING OF ONSET DIFFICULT ACRS PLAINS AND WILL OPT TO START ADVISORY AROUND 09Z ATTP (EVEN THOUGH NAM12 FCST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL A LITTLE WARM ON THE SFC TEMPS). MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS A LITTLE TOO WARM DURING THE DAY AS WELL FOR TUE AND WILL GENERALLY UNDERCUT WITH MID LEVEL COLD POOL/LOW THCK MOVING ACRS AREA...CAN`T RULE A MIXTURE AT TIMES ACRS PB AFTER 18Z. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THRU 00Z/WED BUT IT MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE SE PB/LOWER TRANS PECOS. WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR SOME BY LATE WED BUT IT WILL STILL BE COLD AS INITIAL FRONT FOLLOWS IN WAKE OF 5H LOW. OTHERWISE NOT A LOT TIME SPENT ON FCST AFTER WED. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE RE-ENFORCED THUR AS DEEP COLD TROF/SRN EXTENT OF HUDSON BAY VORTEX KEEPS COLD THCK IN PLACE WHILE KEEPING DOOR OPEN COLD CONTINENTAL AIR TO MOVE S THRU FRI. 5H PATTERN GIVES WAY TO WLY MID LEVEL SAT- MON WHICH SHOULD BE WARMER...BACK INTO THE 50S FOR THE MOST PART.Source: NOAA